If this year’s electoral votes are allowed to be counted and tallied properly, without major interference, I predict a blowout for Democrats Kamala Harris and Tim Walz over Republicans Donald Trump and JD Vance.
I predict the number will be around 53% or more for Harris and Walz to only 47% or less for Trump and Vance.
But notice I started with the word if – because we’re not sure what Trumpies can accomplish by trying to disrupt accurate vote reports.
However, my friends remain concerned about the possibility of Trump and Vance winning, and have informed me of their strong doubts about my optimism.
Even earlier, when President Joe Biden was still seeking re-election, I said Biden would win by a narrow margin—not because of the number who voted for him, but because of those who voted against Trump.
I have to admit, though, that I was concerned about the potential Electoral College — because all but two states award all of their electoral votes to the winning candidate in their states. (Only Maine and Nebraska pro-rate electoral votes.)
Friends would ask me, “Berky, how can you be so optimistic; Trump could win. It’s going to be close.” And they continued to say something similar even after Harris became the presumptive nominee.
So why am I predicting a blowout for the Democrats? I will summarize most of my reasons.
They begin with my deep distrust of polling.
Polling provided reasonably reliable accuracy when conducted by contacting households via landline telephone service. However, with the slow disappearance of landlines, pollsters have been forced to use various other contacts, resulting in a decrease in accuracy.
In addition, in recent decades, citizens were more willing to spend some time answering polls and surveys – partly because there were not so many of them. Today, many people consider it a waste of their time. And I think those who are more willing to answer tend to be somewhat angry about one of the recent political issues. So our modern polls are a bit more skewed.
Next, my prediction has been affected by the outpouring of enthusiasm and support for Vice President Kamala Harris — especially during the first 10 days after President Biden ended his candidacy. It effectively weakened all momentum for Trump and Vance.
About $300 million was raised for the Harris campaign during that period. The first part of this effort was the result of the enthusiasm and support of young black women. Then came more from an effort led by Black men, followed by White Dudes for Harris.
One of the latest is Republicans for Harris and Walz.
All that enthusiasm and momentum continued to grow over the past week with the events and speeches at the Democratic Convention in Chicago. And it became clear that Harris can make smart choices by choosing Tim Walz as his VP.
These recent events have stunned and angered Trump, prompting him to make several idiotic comments. With every rally, he tends to say something stupid that might anger a different group of voters — like his comments belittling the awards given to members of our military who risked life, limb, and mental health in the service of our country.
Both Trump and Vance are their own worst enemies with the surprisingly antisocial comments they make.
Additionally, Trump, Vance, and the GOP are on the wrong side of abortion, gun control, LGBTQ rights, and climate change.
The first will cost them many women’s votes – and their votes are the deciding factor in most elections. Women have outvoted men by as much as 4 to 7 percent over the past two decades. And growing concerns about climate change, gun control and civil rights have drawn many young voters to the Democratic Party.
Young voters are now a much larger percentage of our electorate; and most become more politically active.
Next we have the GOP’s futile efforts to reverse the “Browning of America”; and likewise the failure of evangelicals to stop the secularization of the United States. Both factions, which overlap considerably, try to stop steaming locomotives on their way down the hill.
Even the anti-immigration rhetoric is based on false claims by Trump and the GOP, as economists and analysts continue to report that our labor market needs these immigrants to deal with “the graying of America” and the declining birth rate.
Our population and labor force are expected to shrink by half a percent annually in the coming years. But to maintain our current workforce, to overcome the half percent loss, would require accepting 1.6 million immigrants annually.
So overall, the Harris-Walz ticket offers the hope of a more compassionate and better future through diversity, equality and inclusion—rather than hope of a return to a whiter America with religious nationalism.
It’s about Democrats offering the more desirable, forward-looking hope rather than a backward longing.
And I haven’t even mentioned the ridiculous GOP plans listed in Project 2025.
These are the questions Democrats will be reciting as their enthusiasm can be expected to continue until the election. The cumulative effects of these issues is what prompts my blowout prediction.
But again, that is if the Trumpies fail at any election disruption tactic.