Hezbollah suffered a battle after the second during his recent war with Israel, culminating with the killing of the activist group’s long -time leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in massive Israeli air strikes on the Beirut suburb.
The group was weakening Militaly and politically. Many of its opponents declared that its days as a dominant regional and local player were over.
But a year later, many of Hezbollah’s supporters, enemies and analysts agree with their assessment: It is re -grouped.
“The loss of this leader was a very painful blow to Hezbollah,” said a senior Hezbollah-political official Mohammed Fneish to the Associated Press in the driveway to Saturdy’s anniversary of Nasrallah’s death.
“However, hezbollah is not a party in the usual sense that when it loses its leader, the party becomes weak,” he said. “For a relatively short period of time, it was able to fill in all the positions it lost when (leaders) we martyr, and it continued the confrontation.”
An Israeli military official who spoke anonymously in accordance with the rules said in a statement that Hezbollah’s “influence has fallen by considerable” and that “the probability of a large -scale attack on Israel is considered low.”
But status added that “the organization is trying to rebuild its capacities; the efforts are limited but are expected to expand.” The military rejected how much of Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles and drones Israel believes remain intact.
‘They rebuild’
Despite losing most of its supreme leadership and key communication systems, Hezbollah continued to fight when Israeli troops invaded southern Lebanon last October.
After an American ceasefire stopped the fighting in late November, Israeli forces took control of more territory than they did during the war, and Israel has continued to perform air strikes near daily that it says target Hezbollah militants and facilities.
Hezbollah also lost a key route for supplies from his backman, Iran, when the Allied Government in Bashar Assad in Syria fell into a rebel poeting in December, which Fneish acknowledged was a blow to Hezbollah’s “strategic depth.”
The Lebanese government, meanwhile, has said that it will work on disarming the group by the end of this year, an important demand from the US and Saudi Arabia before funding and a decision that Hezbollah has categorically rejected.
Political opponents say the group is in the denial of its loss of power.
“Hezbollah’s leadership is detached from reality,” said Lebanese legislator Elias Hankash, a frequent criticism of Hezbollah who called for it to surrender his weapons and become a political party exclusively. “Hezbollah does not defend the Lebanese or himself or its weapons or its command.”
But sends Tom Barrack Buscensed Againt, which avoids the group in an interview with the United Arab Emirates-based Imedia Group: “The Lebanese believe that Hezbollah is not rebuilding. They rebuild.”
The Israeli military official said, “Hezbollah is currently struggling to receive sufficient funding from Iran.”
But the Barrack Stremte Group, which the United States appoints a terrorist organization, receives as much as $ 60 million per year. Month from unknown sources. This, despite measures to cut off its funding, included a ban on flights from Iran.
“Hezbollah is our enemy, Iran is our enemy. We have to cut off the heads of these snakes and chop the flow of funds,” Barrack said.
Fneish did not address the group’s sources of financing, but said its financial situation is “normal” and its institutions act as before, included healthcare and social services as well as its armed wing.
A post-nasrallah identity
Founded in 1982, months after Israel invaded Lebanon and occupied parts of it, Morphed Hezbollah into one of the region’s most powerful armed groups, fought for several wars with Israel and speared a campaign that forced it to retreat from southern Lebanon in 2000.
The latest conflict began the day after October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel triggered the nail in Gaza. Hezbollah began shooting rockets into Israel from Lebanon in “Support Front” for Hamas and the Palestinians.
In September 2024, Israel expanded its attacks, starting with the detonation of thousands of personal seekers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members. Days later, it launched a larger wave of air strikes that killed the Hezbollah commanders and hung by civilians.
The biggest battle was Nasrallah’s assault, with the fall of more than 80 1-ton bombs that destroyed a whole block under which Nasrallah and some of his top officials met with an Iranian general.
Days later, Nasrallah’s successor, Hashem Safieddine, was killed in air strikes. The group later appointed Nasrallah’s deputy, Naim Kassem, as the new leader, but the broad view is that Kassem lacks Nasrallah’s charisma.
“Hezbollah’s identity is shaken without Nasrallah because it lost the column of identity,” Bashir said a reading of politics and religion at the University of Stirling in Scotland, which has written a book about the group, although he added that Nasrallah as “a martyr” has “resonance.”
Fneish disagreed that the group has an identity crisis.
“Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was the representation of this identity; he wasn’t even the identity,” he said.
Hezbollah, especially its military wing, went largely underground after the death of Nasrallah. Officials in the group said Hezbollah has worked to close the intelligence gap that prompted Israel to successfully target his military and political officials. Hezbollah members are now relying less on technology, said an official of the group on condition of anonymity because he talked about internal affairs.
The Hezbollah official said Israel used technology and spies to collect information and plan attacks.
Months before Nasrallah’s assault, the group detained a Lebanese man who suspiciously wandered around the area where Nasrallah was later killed. The man confesses to collect information for Israel and is still detailed by Hezbollah, he said.
The biggest violation, said the official, was Israel’s infiltration of the group’s internal cable communication network.
A catch-22 over weapons
Growing press within the Thbanon to Hezbollah to abandon his weapons and delays in the rebuilding of war -trapped areas has left many in its largely shiite base feeling that there are attempts to marginalize them.
Lebanese political author Sultan Suleiman said feeling contributed to the base mounting and an overwhelming victory of Hezbollah and its allies in this year’s municipal elections by its traditional political fortresses.
Some who originally favored disarmament have reassessing.
“There is part of this community that was psychologically worn out this war and began to say, fine, let’s give up weapons, and we will be able to relax,” said Lebanese journalist Jad Hamouch. “But after they saw how Israel behaves in the region, they say now, no, we will keep weapons.”
Amira Jaafar, who lived in the border town of Kfar Kila, before it was destroyed during the war, lost her in the conflict. She said despite all Hezbollah’s losses, including the death of its “great leader” Nasrallah, “We are still strong, and there are many, many young men” still “ready to fight until their last breath.”
A Western diplomat that spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely said the Lebanese state is trapped in a catch-22 about his decision to disarm the group.
The cash -streaming and understaffed Lebanese army, where many soldiers work other jobs to make ends meet, is poorly expressed to meet a face a strength of impact -cured and better -paid fighters who also come from their own communities in some cases, he said.
“I don’t see anyone coming back on this one (decision), but I don’t see how it will go,” he said.
___
Associated Press writer Sam Mednick in Tel Aviv, Israel, contributed to this report.